End Of Day Report March 2nd

HIGHLIGHTS

-	Credit Suisse& Barclays  raises ECB terminal rate forecast to 4.0% (prev. 3.5%); sees 50bps hikes in March and May, followed by 25bps hikes in June and July

-	Fed's Bostic (non-voter) says Fed may have to do more given high inflation and strong jobs market, won't decide until meeting on proper policy path; have seen "some attenuation" of inflation

-	Have seen "some attenuation" of inflation Policy should begin to "bite" through the spring. 

-	Debate is underway about how much influence monetary policy is having in the current economy. 

-	Considers risks now roughly balanced. Business executives say demand is strong and concerns are more macro-related than specific to their firms. 

-	Appropriate to be cautious so Fed does enough to control inflation but does not "do more than we need to". 

-	Businesses say they are expecting to ratchet down the pace of wage increases, but still plan to add workers. 

-	"Slow and steady" changes in policy should reduce the risk of a hard outcome. Will need to have "some kind" of slowdown in the labour market, but not a "catastrophic" fall.

-       US State Department says not expecting any more formal senior dialogue with Russia in the short term