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Darren Krett
Friday 24 February 2023
Morning Report Feb 24th
[00:00:00] Rolling, everyone. Happy Friday. Darren here at Levi from financial, banking sector and . Everything's under pressure. Again, Eur
Morning Report Feb 24th
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Darren Krett
Friday 24 March 2023
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closing report
- Spanish PM supports the creation of a European deposit insurance scheme - Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) when asked about case for leaving rates unchanged, says "Some were willing to say this uncertainty is really big and we should wait" but Bostic is comfortable we can get through this crisis - EU summit statement says that the Eurozone banking system is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions - French President Macron says that the normalisation of policy is not threatening the solid fundamentals of the banking system - Google Search.html - Fed's Bullard (non-voter) says latest Fed SEPs suggest one more rate hike at the next meeting or "soon after" It will be up to Fed Chair Powell to make the decision on timing of next rate hike. - Raised his 2023 terminal rate view to 5.625% in response to the strong economy, assuming financial stress abates. Sees an 80% chance financial stress abates, lower probability outcome is a recession. US remains in position to see disinflation in 2023, will see if Fed needs to react more or not. Expects Fed will be dealing with the strong economy into the Spring and Summer, and not worrying as much about financial stress. Could be a downside if financial stress gets worse and would react to that, but it is not the most likely outcome. Banks have angst over whether deposits are sticky and becoming careful, but not seeing actual problems. Wide variety of jobs data is pointing to a continued strong labour market. Most likely scenario is the Fed will have to ratchet up more as financial stress abates and economy remains strong. Point of developing macroprudential tools was to address problems through specific responses, not monetary policy. If economy looks weak, Fed will react to that. Probability of global crisis stemming from recent stress is low. - Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) says Labour market is tight and inflation is too high, the case for hiking rates this week was pretty clear "Inflation is high. - Demand hadn’t seemed to come down. And so, the case for raising was pretty clear," Every decision is “hard” and fully debated. Barkin adds “For me, the question was: Do you see such stresses happening that you felt like you really had to pull back and learn more?” said Barkin. “It felt very stable by the time we got there. So, the conditions were right to do monetary policy the way we want to do monetary policy.” Public is very upset with the high cost of living. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” “If you can bring inflation down, that creates the conditions for a better jobs market. I think this is the right thing to be focused on,”
Markets calmed down after Fed’s Bullard who said the US response to bank stress was ‘swift and appropriate’ and has allowed monetary policy to focus on inflation, which is still too high. Although market still seems very susceptible to any bank-related news,so as long as nobody "looks under the hood", we should be fine (!?)
Darren Krett
Friday 24 February 2023
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Darren Krett
Thursday 23 March 2023
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