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Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) says Labour market is tight and inflation is too high, the case for hiking rates this week was pretty clearGoldman Sachs (GS) sees a 35% probability of a US recession within 12 months (prev. saw a 25% chance)

Darren Krett

Friday, 24 March 2023

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Goldman Sachs (GS) sees a 35% probability of a US recession within 12 months (prev. saw a 25% chance) facebookGoldman Sachs (GS) sees a 35% probability of a US recession within 12 months (prev. saw a 25% chance) twitterGoldman Sachs (GS) sees a 35% probability of a US recession within 12 months (prev. saw a 25% chance) linkedin

End of day Report March 24th

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closing report

HIGHLIGHTS

-	Spanish PM supports the creation of a European deposit insurance scheme
-	Fed's Bostic (2024 voter) when asked about case for leaving rates unchanged, says "Some were willing to say this uncertainty is really big and we should wait" but Bostic is comfortable 
        we can get through this crisis
-	EU summit statement says that the Eurozone banking system is resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions
-	French President Macron says that the normalisation of policy is not threatening the solid fundamentals of the banking system - Google Search.html
-	Fed's Bullard (non-voter) says latest Fed SEPs suggest one more rate hike at the next meeting or "soon after" It will be up to Fed Chair Powell to make the decision on timing of next 
        rate hike. 
-	Raised his 2023 terminal rate view to 5.625% in response to the strong economy, assuming financial stress abates. Sees an 80% chance financial stress abates, lower probability outcome 
        is a recession. US remains in position to see disinflation in 2023, will see if Fed needs to react more or not. Expects Fed will be dealing with the strong economy into the Spring and 
        Summer, and not worrying as much about financial stress. Could be a downside if financial stress gets worse and would react to that, but it is not the most likely outcome. Banks have 
        angst over whether deposits are sticky and becoming careful, but not seeing actual problems. Wide variety of jobs data is pointing to a continued strong labour market. Most likely 
        scenario is the Fed will have to ratchet up more as financial stress abates and economy remains strong. Point of developing macroprudential tools was to address problems through 
        specific responses, not monetary policy. If economy looks weak, Fed will react to that. Probability of global crisis stemming from recent stress is low.
-	Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) says Labour market is tight and inflation is too high, the case for hiking rates this week was pretty clear "Inflation is high.
-	 Demand hadn’t seemed to come down. And so, the case for raising was pretty clear," Every decision is “hard” and fully debated. Barkin adds “For me, the question was: Do you see such 
         stresses happening that you felt like you really had to pull back and learn more?” said Barkin. “It felt very stable by the time we got there. So, the conditions were right to do 
         monetary policy the way we want to do monetary policy.” Public is very upset with the high cost of living. “The one thing that I hear loud and clear from everybody is that they hate 
         inflation. They find inflation to be unfair,” “If you can bring inflation down, that creates the conditions for a better jobs market. I think this is the right thing to be focused 
         on,”

SUMMARY

Markets calmed down after Fed’s Bullard who said the US response to bank stress was ‘swift and appropriate’ and has allowed monetary policy to focus on inflation, which is still too high. Although market still seems very susceptible to any bank-related news,so as long as nobody "looks under the hood", we should be fine (!?)  

Market Snapshot

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Todays numbers

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On the ticket Monday

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